The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting an above-average “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico this summer covering approximately 5,827 square miles.
The hypoxic area, which can kill fish and other marine life, happens every summer and is primarily a result of excess nutrient pollution from human activities in cities and farm areas throughout the Mississippi-Atchafalaya watershed, according to NOAA. The average dead-zone measurement is 5,205 square miles for the 37 years that records have been kept.
The U.S. Geological Survey said discharge in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers in May was about 5% above the long-term average between 1980 and 2023, and nitrate and phosphorous loads were about 7% below and 22% above the long-term averages, respectively.
“Reducing the impact of hypoxic events and lessening the occurrence and intensity of future dead zones continues to be a NOAA priority,” assistant administrator Nicole LeBoeuf said in a statement. “These forecasts are designed to provide crucial data to scientists, coastal managers and communities, and are used as guideposts in the development of planning actions.”
This is the seventh year NOAA has made a dead-zone forecast using models developed by the agency and researchers at the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University, William & Mary’s Virginia Institute of Marine Science, North Carolina State University and Dalhousie University.
The annual forecast informs the collective efforts of the Interagency Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force, which has a long-term goal of reducing the dead zone to 1,900 square miles by 2035.
