Some officials on the Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee are particularly worried about the job market. Others are more concerned about inflation. Consumers, as it turns out, are anxious about both.
That’s the simplest conclusion to draw from The Conference Board’s explanation of the late November announcement that its Consumer Confidence Index fell by a sharp 6.8 points, to 88.7, during the month from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October — an outcome that Bloomberg said was weaker than all estimates in its survey of economists.
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” Dana M. Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist, stated in a press release. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped, as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor-market conditions. The labor-market differential — the share of consumers who say jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying ‘hard to get’ — dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline.
“All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November,” Peterson added. “Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor -market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically after six months of strongly positive readings.”
The think tank said confidence did continue to improve for consumers under 35 (on a six-month moving average basis), but good feelings among consumers that age and older declined. Measuring by income, The Conference Board said, confidence fell for nearly everyone on a six-month moving average after optimism had increased for several months among most income groups.
Politically speaking, confidence fell for everyone, but particularly among independents. “Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” Peterson said. “Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.”
The Conference Board said Americans’ average 12-month inflation expectations remained elevated, with the median rate increasing to 4.8%. Consumers’ views of what the think tank measures as a family’s Current and Future Financial Situation “faltered” in November after improving in the previous month.
“Assessments of current financial situations collapsed to near the low levels seen in August 2024, when a confluence of negative events stoked a brief financial market selloff and U.S. recession concerns,” The Conference Board said. Plans for the purchase of big-ticket items, such as cars and major appliances, declined in November “after little change since May.”
In the other major consumer survey, the University of Michigan said its Consumer Sentiment Index declined 2.6 points in November, from 53.6 to 51, although the university said the move actually amounted to little change because it was within the margin of error. “After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading,” Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers, stated in a press release. “However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. [In November], current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly.
“By the end of the month, sentiment for consumers with the largest stock holdings lost the gains seen at the preliminary reading,” Hsu added. “This group’s sentiment dropped about 2 index points from October, likely a consequence of the stock market declines seen over the [middle two weeks of November].”
She noted that year-ahead inflation expectations inched down from 4.6% in October to 4.5% in November. “This marks three consecutive months of declines, but short-run inflation expectations remain above the 3.3% seen in January,” she said. “Long-run inflation expectations softened from 3.9% [in October] to 3.4% in November. These expectations are now modestly above the 3.2% January 2025 reading. Despite these improvements in the future trajectory of inflation, consumers continue to report that their personal finances now are weighed down by the present state of high prices.”
The federal shutdown meant that some government measures of the U.S. economy were missing in November. The Labor Department said the economy added 119,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate edged up slightly, to 4.4%, in a very late jobs report that was issued Nov. 20 after the shutdown ended eight days earlier.
The Consumer Price Index, the monthly inflation barometer produced by the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, was not reported in November because of the shutdown but is to return Dec. 18 with November figures. Another key piece of inflation data, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, also went unreported in November. The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
The mood at the nation’s small businesses dimmed again in October. The National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points, to 98.2, keeping the measure barely above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. A more heartening finding was that the trade group’s Uncertainty Index dropped 12 points, to 88, its lowest reading of the year. The index is a barometer of how unsure member business owners are about the trajectory of the economy.
“Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October, as owners report lower sales and reduced profits,” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg stated in a press release. “Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire, but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
The federation said 27% of its member businesses cited labor quality as their most important problem in October. That figure was up 9% from September and was the highest for that issue since it hit a record high of 29% in November 2021. Taxes, at 16%, ranked second among business problems in October. NFIB said the net percentage of member owners who expect the economy to improve in the coming months fell 3% from September, to 20%, the lowest level since April.
A seasonally adjusted 32% of member owners reported job openings they could not fill, a figure that was unchanged from the previous two months but is still an historically high percentage. The previous time unfilled openings climbed that high was in December 2020. A net 26% of owners, also seasonally adjusted, reported raising pay in October, down 5% from the previous month.
Confidence among the nation’s home builders was relatively flat in November, remaining in what the National Association of Home Builders calls “negative territory” — a number on its index that is below 50. The trade group said its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index edged up 1 point, to 38. Builder sentiment has now been below 50 for a year and seven months. NAHB blames market uncertainty, exacerbated by the government shutdown, and economic uncertainty that stemmed from tariffs and rising construction costs.
“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C., stated in a press release. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”
“We continue to see demand-side weakness, as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz added in a press release. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”
The latest NAHB survey also showed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November. The trade group said that was a post-Covid high and marked the first time the measure topped 40%. NAHB said the use of sales incentives was at 65% in November, which tied the share during the previous two months.
The HMI’s three subindexes posted mixed results, with only one topping 50; that is the trade group’s line between good and poor conditions. The index that gauges current sales conditions rose 2 points, to 41; the index that measures future sales fell 3 points, to 51; and the index that charts the traffic of prospective buyers gained 1 point, to 26.
Figures for new-home sales from the Commerce Department for October were not available because of the government shutdown. Existing-home sales rose 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million during the month, according to figures supplied by the National Association of Realtors. “Home sales increased in October, even with the government shutdown, due to home buyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun stated in a press release. “First-time home buyers are facing headwinds in the Northeast due to a lack of supply and in the West because of high home prices. First-time buyers fared better in the Midwest because of the plentiful supply of affordable houses and in the South because there is sufficient inventory.
“Rents are decelerating, which will reduce inflation and encourage the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates and pulling back their quantitative tightening,” Yun added. “This will help bring more home buyers into the market, since the Fed rate has an indirect impact on mortgage rates.”
(“Quantitative tightening” refers to a central bank reducing the size of its balance sheet to decrease the supply of money in the economy. The Fed either sells Treasuries or allows them to mature, and the policy’s goal is to control inflation.)
NAR said the median existing-home sales price in October was $415,200, up 2.1% from the same month a year earlier. It was the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
