While many dealers and customers admired yesterday’s solar eclipse, businesses along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should have been reading about a perfect storm and thinking ahead.
I’m talking about a combination of La Niña and high ocean temperatures that have experts predicting a very active Atlantic hurricane season. Last week, the experts at Colorado State University shook us from our solar eclipse daze when they announced their forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which kicks off June 1.
The forecasters are predicting an extremely active season with as many as 23 named storms. Of that number, they predict 11 will become hurricanes and at least five will reach major-hurricane status sporting winds of at least 111 mph.
Two factors are creating this menacing outlook. First, they label the current temperatures in the Atlantic as “blistering.” Second, La Niña episodes have a history of feeding hurricane activity. In August 2021, Ida was one of four hurricanes that slammed Louisiana during the last La Niña episode. Hurricane Ian ripped up the Fort Myers, Fla., area in 2022, where total recovery will take years. In September 2020, Hurricane Sally hit Alabama, the Florida panhandle and parts of Georgia.
According to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach at CSU, over a 30-year period, La Niña weather patterns have produced 105 major hurricanes, compared with 45 during El Niño years. So what’s the difference?
With El Niño coming off the Pacific, there aren’t as many storm tracks through the Caribbean because the weather pattern’s wind shear can disrupt hurricane formation. La Niña years usually generate even stronger trade winds off the Pacific, but the jet stream turns them more northward over the United States, which means there’s less wind shear to break up hurricanes.
Moreover, the Atlantic never fully cooled from its record temperatures last year. And CSU’s Klotzbach contends the water temperature will hit another record high this year.
In addition, experts contend warmer waters can trigger a more rapid storm intensification once winds reach a steady 35 mph. And the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration has issued a prediction that water temperatures in the prime storm development area will remain high through August.
For marine interests from Texas to New England, especially along the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, revisiting hurricane plans is a smart play now. Ask any dealer or marina operator in the aforementioned areas that were hit, and they will advise you that having an advance plan could make a big difference. That clearly applies to hurricane preparations. And a written plan that can be immediately referenced and executed by the team should a real threat approach can make a huge difference in how the business and customers come out on the other side.
Remember the five Ps: Prior planning prevents poor performance.