Gustavorrazao - stock.adboe.comFuturists agree that the next few years will bring substantial global change. However, they disagree on whether that change will be good or bad.
The gloomy forecast comes from such reputable sources as ITR Economics and authors Neil Howe and Peter Zeihan, who argue that we have a rough decade ahead of us. Twenty-plus years of fiscal irresponsibility by the U.S. government, global population shrinkage and movement away from globalization and toward nationalism, combined with regular demographic cycles, indicate that a reckoning is on the way. And it won’t be fun.
Those with this dystopian view share a silver lining: Most believe that by the mid-2030s, we will have worked through the challenges and begun a new era of good times and prosperity. These predictions are part of a long historical cycle that some describe as such: “Hard times create strong people. Strong people create good times. Good times create weak people. Weak people create hard times.”
While favorable demographics, a diversified economy and unique geographic benefits will shelter the United States from some of the mayhem, it won’t totally protect us. The predicted challenges will be global, and no country will be exempt.
The bright forecast is promoted by futurists such as Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil, who say technology will rescue us. They believe that instead of experiencing a dystopian decade, developing technologies will generate an abundance beyond what we can imagine and solve many of our global challenges.
This optimism is driven by increasing computational power, which does not seem to be slowing. Higher computational power generates new technologies that merge to create new business models. The optimists believe those models will provide economic growth and solutions to many of our most difficult issues. Quantum computing, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and other developing technologies will create global prosperity.
People much smarter than me argue on both sides of this debate, and since I am not an expert at anything, I don’t claim to know which is right. After studying the two perspectives, it is difficult to deny the trends forming the basis of a dystopian view. However, I remain hopeful that technology’s benefits will negate, or at least mitigate, any negative trends. If I had to pick one, it would be the brighter future. Yes, I am an optimist, but I also know that the best leaders will be prepared for anything.
So what can leaders do? First, accept that change is coming. No futurist with credibility is predicting a static decade ahead. If you doubt that, read some of the authors I mention here and draw your own conclusions. Once you acknowledge that the world is changing, it’s much easier to prepare for whatever that change may bring.
Second, be a learner. At Correct Craft, we talk all the time about the power of being a learner versus a knower. A learner absorbs information to broaden or change his/her perspective, while a knower absorbs information to validate his/her existing perspective. Constantly scan the horizon and ensure you are open to seeing developments that may disagree with your perspective. Any leader who wants great results, whatever the future brings, must be a learner.
Third, we must prepare for change without being too worried about specific change. Many leaders spend significant time trying to identify specific changes that could impact their businesses, and they are almost always wrong. However, while it is hard to predict specific changes, we can be 100% certain that some change is coming. This mindset helps us be prepared for anything. For instance, although our team did not predict a pandemic, the economic downturn plan we had in place was useful when reacting to plant shutdowns during the first waves of Covid-19.
Fourth, be sure you have a team in place that can weather a storm. Our team has a phrase we use all the time: “It’s not how, but who.” No matter how good your plan is, it will fail without the right people. If you struggle to make changes in this area, read Henry Cloud’s book Necessary Endings.
Fifth, operate leanly. It is much easier to scale up than it is to claw back dollars unnecessarily spent. And those dollars will be needed if there is a storm to weather.
Sixth, embrace technology. Whether good or bad, whatever future scenario plays out, we will need automation and other ways of improving productivity. We must also use technology to be data-driven and avoid the emotional hijacking that can occur when making tough decisions during uncertain times without the right information.
Seventh, double down on your culture investment. The clarity alone that culture provides during times of uncertainty is likely to generate the best return on investment a leader can earn. Culture always matters, but never more than when navigating uncertainty.
Finally, and perhaps most important, view the next decade’s uncertainty as an opportunity. Most leaders fail during a severe test, but the best leaders know it is an opportunity for their organizations to improve. I have worked long enough as a leader to have navigated several tough patches, but in every case, our organization has come out of the trial much better. The next decade will be a once-in-a-career opportunity for leaders to shine and organizations to excel when others are failing. Don’t miss the opportunity.
Doris Kearns Goodwin is one of the world’s best-known historians, and I’m a fan. Her books are excellent. A few months ago, she told me that the United States has had a lot of dark days, some much darker than today. During those dark days, the potential outcomes seemed scary, but our country is resilient and came through each trial better. We will make it through whatever the next decade brings, too, but the best leaders will be prepared for anything, and their organizations will be more likely to survive and thrive because of that preparation.
This article was originally published in the December 2023 issue.
