U.S. Economy Added 115,000 Jobs in April

The Labor Department’s report today that the economy added an above-forecast 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% provided what recreational marine industry sources tell Trade Only Today is further evidence the economy is steadying itself after a turbulent performance in 2025.

The job market has now shown six-digit gains during three of the past four months, although its path to that performance has been far from smooth, and revisions to previous months’ figures reflect the gyrations that have characterized the period.

The Labor Department upgraded its healthy job reading for March from 178,000 to an even more robust 185,000, but it also revised its February decline further downward, to 156,000, from an originally reported 133,000.

By contrast, the government had said in February that the economy added only a net 181,000 jobs over all of an up-and-down 2025.

“The April jobs numbers came in stronger than expected and provided the first back-to-back monthly job gains in over a year,” Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the National Marine Manufacturers Association, told Trade Only Today. “While the headline numbers paint a rosy picture, and they follow a March figure that was raised higher, the February numbers were revised lower.

“The three-month average of just under 50,000 new jobs is probably the more realistic view of current labor market strength,” he added. “It’s also important to remember that [Federal Reserve chairman Jerome] Powell said in December that Federal Reserve analysis suggests the establishment survey is overreporting job gains by an estimated 60,000 a month. Actual job growth in the economy is likely low to flat.

“With that said, the country needs much lower job growth to sustain the labor market and keep unemployment low. Fifty thousand new jobs a month is probably sufficient to keep unemployment steady. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.8%, the lowest level since October 2021. Part of what is keeping unemployment low is fewer workers in the labor market.”

Ian Wyatt, chief economist at recreational marine lender Huntington National Bank, told Trade Only Today that he hopes the past two months are the start of a new trend.

“From April last year to this February, we lost 49,000 jobs,” he said. “Over the past two months, we have added 300,000 jobs. While this could mark the beginning of a solid trend in job growth, there are a couple of factors that limit the likelihood of six-digit monthly growth over a long period.

“First, the labor force simply isn’t growing, and the unemployment rate is still low at 4.3%, so the pool of available workers is limited. Second, we do see gas prices as a modest headwind to growth, so getting gas prices back down would help. The consumer remains relatively healthy, and this was the key factor in recent job growth, with retailers adding 22,000 jobs and delivery services adding 38,000 jobs.

“Retail sales growth was partly due to government stimulus from the tax bill last year, which led to higher refunds this year, as well as lower tax withholdings from paychecks, which started back in January. These drivers will fade as the year goes on. Still, it was a very positive jobs report. It’s good to see two straight months of solid job gains and solid wage growth.”

Chad Lyon, managing director, global inventory finance, at Wells Fargo, told Trade Only Today that the April jobs report suggests the labor market is stabilizing, “indicating February’s softness was likely temporary.

“For the boating industry, this points to a relatively steady consumer backdrop,” Lyon added. “Stable employment typically supports participation and usage, particularly across service, maintenance and aftermarket spending, which can be key revenue-drivers for dealers and OEMs. If labor conditions remain stable, it could also help rebuild confidence around larger discretionary purchases. While buyers are still more payment-sensitive, improving confidence may gradually support new boat sales as the season progresses.”

Former NMMA president Thom Dammrich agreed that the fresh jobs report indicates that the economy is steadying.

“After the weak jobs report in February, we now have two consecutive months of jobs growth in March and April,” he said. “I would like to see three consecutive months of moderate-to-strong jobs growth before acknowledging a trend. I think we can continue to see six-figure job growth, and that level should keep the unemployment rate steady.

“While wage growth is helpful for the boating industry, the strongest positive is the continued hiring in sectors that represent large, stable, middle-income customer bases for entry-level and family boats,” he added. “While wage growth is slightly outpacing inflation, the bigger concern for consumers, and therefore for boating, is price levels. The 6% to 9% inflation in 2021 and 2022 far outpaced wage growth, and consumers are still catching up to current price levels.

“There are some red flags in the report, including the labor force shrinking — which helped keep unemployment steady — rising involuntary part-time employment and layoffs in the technology industry. Another concern is that inflation may soon outpace wage growth, leading to further concerns about price levels. But overall, I think this is the best economic news the boating industry has seen in quite a while.”

Consumers, however, continue to have a pessimistic view.

The University of Michigan said today that its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for May was 48.2, even lower than the final 49.8 reading for April that was the lowest in the survey’s 74-year history.

Surveys of consumers director Joanne Hsu stated in a press release that there was a “surge in concerns about high prices, both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases.

“Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March,” she said. “About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.”

Bellwether category health care again was the job category leader in April, adding 37,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing employment added 30,000 jobs, reflecting what the Labor Department said was a gain among couriers and messengers.

There also were 22,000 new retail jobs in April, and the social assistance category added 17,000. 

Federal government employment fell by another 9,000 jobs, as the Trump administration continues to cut people. The Labor Department said federal government employment is down 348,000 employees, or 11.5%, since it peaked in October 2024.

“Certain parts of the labor market continue to grow,” DuBravac said. “Health care has been a big part of labor-market growth over the last year. But seeing additional construction market gains points to companies willing to invest in the future. Manufacturing added workers for the first time since March 2024. Time will tell if those job gains remain or if they are revised lower. Wages continue to grow, though with inflation pressures building, purchasing power is receding. 

“There are elements of this month’s report that worry me,” DuBravac added. “The U-6 measure, which captures discouraged workers and part-time-for-economic-reason workers, climbed to 8.2%. The number of people working part time for economic reasons jumps nearly half a million, to 4.9 million. The report has positive elements. I think the market is overreacting to the perceived strength.”

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, to $37.41, and earnings are up 3.6% on a year-over year basis, keeping them just above the 3.5% annual rate of inflation in the most recent reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of the cost of living.

“The most constructive signal for the boating industry is overall labor market stability, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, which can help support consumer confidence and is an important factor in boat sales,” Lyon said. 

“Wage growth of 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% annually provides some support to the broader economy, though it is likely less impactful for higher-ticket discretionary purchases. At the same time, underlying trends in part-time employment and labor force participation are worth monitoring, as they could influence momentum in larger discretionary spending categories.”

Wyatt said that in addition to overall jobs and wage gains, one interesting thing to note is that a key demographic for boat buyers, blue-collar workers, is seeing strong labor market trends.

“Non-residential construction job growth has been strong, partly driven by the massive build-out of data centers,” he said. “The fastest wage growth over the past year has been in construction, mining/oil and gas drilling, and manufacturing. There are some good, positive details in this report for the boating industry.”

The Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee next meets to consider its interest rate policy in mid-June. Wyatt said he does not see the Fed reducing its benchmark rate at that meeting, even though the central bank will likely have a new chairman, Kevin Warsh, who has said he wants to see the rate go lower.

“The Fed very clearly signaled a pause on rate moves in the last meeting, and we do not expect that, even with a new chair who wants rate cuts leading the Fed, the committee will be looking to cut rates when job growth remains strong, the unemployment rate is low and there are concerns about the impact of oil prices on inflation,” he said.