Global Trade: Crosscurrents in Motion

Global trade — including seaborne flows that power boatbuilding supply chains, aftermarket distribution and international boat sales — remains far more resilient than the deglobalization narrative suggests, according to DHL’s Global Connectedness Tracker: October 2025 Special Update. 

The comprehensive analysis in the DHL report, commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business, used data finalized last September. The report’s analysis shows that the movement of goods, capital, information and people across borders is holding at near-record levels despite tariff shocks, geopolitical conflict and economic uncertainty. The DHL report describes a world where trade flows are shifting, not shrinking, and where manufacturers and distributors must navigate new trade lanes, new customer geographies and a more complex geopolitical map.

“The data indicates that a reversal of globalization is a risk, but not a current reality,” the report states, adding that the world remains “far closer to a collection of separate national economies than to full global integration.”

According to the report, global trade in goods grew faster in the first half of 2025 than in any year since 2010, outside of the pandemic boom period. The primary driver was a surge in U.S. imports as companies front-loaded purchases ahead of tariff increases. Even after the front-loading spike subsided, global trade volumes remained above 2024 levels, signaling that the world’s appetite for goods — and the shipping volume that accompanies it — is still expanding. DHL’s forecast calls for annualized global trade growth of 2.5% through 2029, matching the pace of the previous decade.

The most important concern for the marine industry now, according to Robyn Boerstling, chief advocacy officer and senior vice president of government relations at the National Marine Manufacturers Association, is the reauthorization of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. 

“The USMCA keeps supply chains aligned across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, supports regulatory cooperation, and ensures the American workforce stays globally competitive,” Boerstling says. “More than $1.6 billion in boats and engines flowed across the three countries last year, and U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico alone represented about one-third of the industry’s total global exports. Renewing and extending USMCA for the full 16-year term is one of the most important decisions impacting manufacturing confidence over the next decade.”

North American integration from the USMCA has benefitted the marine industry, she says, adding that tariffs continue to reshape sourcing and production. Aluminum, composites, engines and electronics are essential inputs for modern boatbuilding, yet many of these materials aren’t produced at scale in the United States. 

“Tariffs on these components drive higher production costs that affect small shops and major boatbuilders alike, which can ultimately impact consumers,” she says. “Manufacturers are working to adapt by diversifying suppliers, building more inventory and expanding regional production strategies. Unfortunately, the tariffs create some additional costs and needless risk, as well as challenges to our domestic competitiveness. What we’re seeing across the sector is resilience, but it’s a difficult environment for marine manufacturers given how closely our industry tracks with consumer confidence.”

Christophe Lavigne agrees with Boerstling’s assessment. Lavigne is president of Highfield Boats USA, with a European head office in France, a manufacturing facility in Cadillac, Mich., and an import business with Asia. “The tariff crisis of 2025, initiated by U.S. trade policy, has affected the recreational boating industry in ways I have never seen before in my career,” Lavigne says. “After the Great Recession of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic, this has been the most disruptive economic shock I have ever managed.

“We had anticipated 2025 to be a year of rebound after two years of recession. The election was behind us, business-oriented leadership had returned to Washington, and consumer sentiment appeared to be improving,” Lavigne says. “I was wrong.”

A key lesson learned, he says, is that major political decisions now impact business not in years or months, but in hours. “A single morning announcement on social media could force us to halt container shipments by the afternoon,” he says. “Even U.S. Customs struggled to adjust to constant rule changes, causing massive logistical delays and financial exposure.”

Cascading effects of the tariffs that Lavigne saw on his company included an explosion in the costs of goods sold. In January 2025, tariffs on Asian marine goods were 27.5%. By April, they surged to 198.5%. That made importing impossible, Lavigne says, and forced Highfield to halt production multiple times, stop shipping boats on multiple occasions, and absorb “huge unplanned costs.” Some price increases had to be pushed to retail while limiting margin erosion, he says.

When tariffs peaked, Lavigne says, shipping costs surged. Ocean freight rates collapsed as importers stopped shipping entirely. In a matter of months, Lavigne says, he saw rates at $3,000 per container to the Midwest spike to $12,000 per container. That volatility made planning nearly impossible.

The pain continued when the U.S. importer had to pay tariffs at the border for the goods, and cash became the “most painful bottleneck.” Highfield’s manufacturing costs increased, and its exports to Canada collapsed because of retaliatory tariffs. Competitors from Europe and Asia gained price advantage, and Highfield’s U.S. export business was “essentially gone,” he says.

“The true cost of tariffs far exceeded the tariff amount itself,” Lavigne says. “Highfield’s early foresight in U.S. manufacturing enabled us to maintain momentum — even gain share — while competitors struggled. Our ‘Made in USA’ strategy protected our relevance and stability. But the pain is real and can be measured in dollars lost and opportunity missed.”

Brian Swanke, CEO of CWR Wholesale Distribution, which deals in marine electronics, parts and equipment sales, says tariffs have required a lot of learning. “I do believe the marine industry is experiencing a slowdown,” Swanke says. “I think the growth is what we would call fragile. One week we see growth, and the next it feels like someone shut down the phones and systems, and orders are slow. I think this is due to rising costs, trade barriers, tariffs and, of course, political tensions. I think this is all resulting in a time of major uncertainty.”

Impact on Distributors

The DHL Tracker shows significant changes in trade lanes that directly affect marine parts, boat components, raw materials and the export markets U.S. builders rely on. Seven of the 10 fastest-growing trade lanes worldwide in early 2025 involved exports to the United States, driven almost entirely by the tariff front-loading surge. Demand is high, but routes are shifting.

The share of U.S.-reported imports coming directly from China dropped to 9% during the first seven months of 2025, down from 13% a year earlier and 22% in 2017. China’s own exports, meanwhile, did not fall. Instead, they shifted into Southeast Asia, Africa and parts of Europe. “The full drop in the value of China’s exports to the U.S. was offset entirely” by growth into ASEAN countries, the DHL report states. The report quantifies this and other shifts: Chinese exports to ASEAN countries rose 15%, Africa 25% and the European Union 8%. 

For the marine trade, the sourcing landscape is diversifying without shrinking. “I don’t think the level of U.S. imports/exports has changed much, but it has shifted,” Swanke says. “They simply rerouted shipping lanes. So stuff from China now might come from Taiwan or Mexico.” Conversely, the slowest-growing trade lanes involved exports to China, signaling cooling demand in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s imports from the United States, Singapore, Germany and Australia all declined. 

Impact on Boat Dealers

U.S. and Canadian dealers are affected by these tensions, says Mike Sayre, director of government relations at the Marine Retailers Association of the Americas. “Canadian dealers are very directly impacted by retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-made goods,” he says. Also, dealers who sell foreign-built boats could face a significantly higher tariff cost than when the boats were purchased, and be stuck with that cost, he says.

Sayre says the situation for most MRAA members who primarily stock and sell U.S.-built boats is still difficult, but not always in such a direct way. Uncertainty was the theme of 2025 for dealers, manufacturers and the boating public, he says. “Again, this makes planning more difficult and can force dealers to work harder to ensure their operations aren’t disrupted when some aspect of their supply chain makes a drastic change in order to secure more favorable tariff rates.”

DHL reports that “goods trade traversed the longest average distance on record,” or about 3,100 miles in early 2025. The share of trade taking place within regions fell to a new low of 50.7%. For the marine industry, this means global sourcing remains the norm, and logistics planning must continue to account for long-distance, multistop shipping realities.

DHL also says Goldman Sachs reported that international M&A transactions reached a five-year high in 2025. This, too, matters to the boatbuilding industry, where acquisitions of engine manufacturers, technology suppliers and components brands often involve international buyers.

That landscape is critical for marine firms planning expansion. One of those firms is Supersede, based in Phoenix and the manufacturer of Marine Board, a plywood replacement for boatbuilding. Supersede won a DAME Award at Metstrade in November and plans to open a new manufacturing facility in the Midwest in 2026.

“We are currently manufacturing our products in the U.S.,” says Sean Petterson, CEO and co-founder. “However, we do have international distributors such as Brunger Export for most of the overseas market and Budget Marine for the Caribbean. We plan to begin marketing the Supersede Marine Board more in foreign markets in the near future as our factory capacity increases.”

During the past year, he says, Supersede has seen meaningful shifts in the marine supply chain, especially around wood-based materials. For instance, lumber tariffs have increased costs and contributed to volatility in the plywood supply chain, pushing some boatbuilders to rethink materials choices. 

“As a result, we’re seeing stronger interest in solutions that offer durability, consistency and cost stability over time,” Petterson says. “That trend is accelerating as manufacturers look for materials that aren’t tied to unpredictable commodity cycles and that perform reliably in marine environments.”

The DHL Tracker does state that despite policy shocks, “the global economy has proven remarkably resilient.” Markets reward companies that operate globally.

Prof. Steven A. Altman, co-author of the DHL report, told Soundings Trade Only that “current forecasts call for global trade growth to slow in 2026 before rebounding to a more typical rate in 2027. Looking a bit further ahead, current forecasts imply that global trade should grow at roughly the same pace over the 2025-29 period as it did over the preceding decade. Before the U.S. began increasing tariffs, earlier forecasts called for faster 2025-29 trade growth. So we’re currently expecting tariff increases to slow but not to reverse global trade growth.”

Regarding recent developments since the DHL report, Altman noted reductions to U.S. tariffs as being positive for trade.