The U.S. economy added three times as many jobs in March as most economists were expecting, and the unemployment rate edged down to its February level as the choppy, up-down-up pace of employment in recent months continued. The Labor Department said April 3 that the economy added 178,000 jobs in March — far exceeding the consensus estimate of 60,000 — and the unemployment rate also surprised by falling slightly, to 4.3%. It has been stable between 4% and 4.5% since the start of 2025.
The sizable advance was shown to be even more important for the economy because the government said February’s job loss was deeper, at 133,000, than the originally reported 92,000. And January’s six-digit gain was also revised, upward, from 126,000 to 160,000, making the gyrations within the three-month period even more pronounced.
The labor force participation rate — the percentage of the population that is in the workforce — fell to 61.9% in March and has been slowly declining since November, when it was at 62.5%. The declines may appear small, but the new rate is the lowest since 2021.
So is the economy healthier now, or is it lurching and struggling to gain its balance? And what does the uneven trend mean as the boating industry moves into the spring selling season?
“While March’s headline of 178,000 jobs is striking, it masks a deeper trend: The economy has averaged roughly 21,000 new jobs per month over the past year,” Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the National Marine Manufacturers Association, told Soundings Trade Only. “The labor market is holding together structurally, with low layoffs keeping the unemployment rate in check, but hiring remains measured. Despite some volatility in recent months, the economy remains in a low-hire, low-fire environment that is likely to persist in the coming months.
“The recreational boating industry can be cautiously optimistic about the March jobs report,” DuBravac added. “The industry should view this report as confirmation that the labor market is not collapsing. A jobs report like this likely keeps recession fears from intensifying, which could buoy consumer sentiment and in turn make discretionary purchases more appealing.”
Former NMMA president Thom Dammrich told Soundings Trade Only that he sees an economy that continued to show resiliency in March. “It is hard to discern any trend here, as the jobs numbers bounce up and down each month,” he said. “I would really like to see a jobs growth trend develop in the coming months.”
Brian Thompson, an investor and clinical professor of economics at DePaul University in Chicago, described the economy as “resilient but uneven.” “The 178,000 jobs in March … reinforces that the underlying foundation is more durable than people give it credit for,” Thompson told Soundings Trade Only. “There is certainly some division across the labor market in terms of areas showing stability, areas experiencing growth and areas facing more challenges. That unevenness creates the ‘choppy’ feel, but choppy does not mean unhealthy.
“For the boating industry, I do believe there are considerable business and growth opportunities ahead, but selectivity across market segments is important,” he added. “Rising energy prices tied to the situation in Iran are compressing disposable income for middle-market consumers already dealing with years of compounded inflation. That said, a stable labor market means people still have jobs and income, and that’s the foundation for big-ticket purchase decisions.”
Average hourly earnings continued to stay above the rate of inflation. The Labor Department said the increase for March was 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $37.38. On a year-over-year basis, the gain was 3.5%. “I believe the wage growth numbers are the most significant positive [in the jobs report],” Thompson said. “When hourly earnings are growing at 3.5% annually and sitting above inflation, real wages are moving in the right direction. That’s critical for an industry that depends on discretionary spending.
“For warning flags, I’d point to two things. First, rising gas and diesel prices act as a direct tax on consumers, and raise the cost of boat ownership, hitting middle-market buyers hardest. Second, I’m watching the breadth of job creation closely. If gains remain concentrated in just a few sectors, the recovery isn’t as broad-based as the headline implies, and that has implications for consumer confidence.”
The next meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee is April 28-29. Fed chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank won’t approve any more rate cuts until it sees meaningful progress toward its 2% inflation target. The Fed has been holding its benchmark interest rate steady because of the uncertain job market and inflation that has remained stubbornly above its goal rate. The strong March jobs numbers could cause the Fed to shift its focus to the inflation restraint side of its mandate.
Thompson said it’s difficult to make a strong argument that the Fed should lower its benchmark interest rate when energy prices are rising at the pace that they currently are. “With 178,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, the Fed has little reason to believe the labor market needs support,” he said. “The external headwinds and ongoing Middle East uncertainty make it difficult to stray from the status quo. My expectation is that the Fed holds steady and signals inflation is back atop the priority list. For the boating industry, that means the current rate environment is likely what we’ll be operating in through the summer selling season.”
NMMA’s DuBravac believes the Fed will keep the current rate for the remainder of the year. He said inflation does appear likely to reaccelerate “at least temporarily, due to higher energy prices, and the Fed could signal a more hawkish stance in the coming months. … Dealers and manufacturers should plan around the assumption that borrowing costs stay where they are, and continue emphasizing flexible financing, entry-level product lines and shared-access models that lower the barrier to participation.”
This story originally appeared in the May 2026 issue of Soundings Trade Only.
